What are households’ expectations? Since 2019, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been investigating this question by surveying households in Germany on a regular basis (Bundesbank Online Panel Households).

At an average of 2.9% in April, the inflation expectations of individuals in Germany for the next 12 months dropped below the 3% mark again for the first time since April 2021. Average inflation expectations three years ahead also continued to fall, declining from 3.6% in March to 3.4% at present.

Average expectations for real estate price developments over the next 12 months rose again slightly in April, climbing to 3.9% from 3.6% in March and 3.3% in February. Accordingly, a slightly larger share of individuals expected real estate prices in their region to rise over the next 12 months in April than in the previous month (April 41%, March 38%) and a smaller share expected real estate prices to fall (April 23%, March 28%).

Individuals’ expectations regarding income developments over the next 12 months fell somewhat in April while remaining in positive territory at an average of around €120. As in previous months, all income groups expected their income to increase, with the amount of expected increase rising with current income.

The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular surveys of households’ expectations for unemployment, economic growth, rent prices, real estate prices, and interest rates on savings and loans. These data are used to calculate index figures, from which corresponding trends can be easily derived.